With Craig Berube Gone, Chayka and Sundin Must Now Decide What to Do with Auston Matthews

Photo credit: Christopher Katsarov/CP

Two weeks into the job and John Chayka and Mats Sundin have already made their first difficult call.

Craig Berube is out as coach. The right decision and a necessary one, a move that had to happen before anything else could.

Now they have an even tougher decision, one that will define everything that follows.

The one that will shape this franchise for the next decade. The one that will keep Chayka and Sundin awake at night, staring at nothing, running through scenarios that all feel wrong until one of them doesn't.

What do you do with Auston Matthews?

One of the greatest Leafs ever, Matthews has two years left on his contract that will come to an end a few months before his 30^th birthday. Mitch Marner, one of his best friends, now in Vegas, a parting with the Leafs that was anything but amicable. Endless playoff disappointments and questions about why, when the lights are brightest, the Leafs can’t get it done.

And now, after the worst season of the Matthews era, a gift from the hockey gods. A draft lottery won against almost impossible odds. First overall pick. Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg waiting to pull that jersey over his head in Buffalo next month.

And somewhere in all of this, a franchise, coming off a season that saw a 30-point free fall in the standings, trying to figure out if it's building toward a championship or tearing the whole thing down and starting over.

This isn't just about Matthews. This is about where the franchise is headed.

After a decade in Toronto, Matthews says all the right things. He wants to win in Toronto. He's committed to the city. He loves the fans. He understands what it means to wear the jersey.

But lip service and a commitment are two very different things. If Matthews is ready to sign long-term and retire a Leaf—and he’s given no indication otherwise—then give another go. But if there's any hesitation, any doubt about whether this is where he wants to be five years from now, the decision's already made. This franchise can't afford another star counting down the days until free agency. The only players who should be here are the ones who want to be here. Nothing else matters.

The reality is harsher than the words. Marner, the Goose to his Maverick for a decade, is gone, doing in Vegas at playoff time what he could never do in Toronto. The spotlight, the noise, in Toronto never fades and only gets louder after each playoff thud. The media and fan scrutiny never lets up. And out west, teams like Los Angeles and Vegas and San Jose and Utah are watching, waiting, wondering if Matthews might prefer life somewhere quieter, somewhere warmer, somewhere closer to home.

The question isn't whether Matthews wants to win here. The question is whether this roster, as currently assembled, can actually win.

When he's up for a new contract, whether that's with the Leafs or as a free agent, he'll likely be looking for a long-term deal that takes him into the twilight of his career.

Does Matthews, an American-born player with no real ties to Canada or Toronto, want to stay under the microscope for the rest of his career? More importantly, is that something the Leafs will, or should be willing, to do?

Because right now, they're caught in the worst possible place. Not a contender. Not quite committed to a rebuild. Just floating somewhere in the middle with a superstar who might be looking for a change two years from now and a franchise that can't afford to wait to find out.

Can They Compete for A Stanley Cup with This Roster?

Are the Leafs a serious contender with Matthews, McKenna, William Nylander, Easton Cowan and Matthew Knies? Most would say no—and certainly not one ready to compete with Buffalo and Montreal, who are just beginning their reign atop the Atlantic.

Sure, Nylander is one of the flashiest wingers in the game. John Tavares, aging but still productive, took a heavy discount to stay. The defence? Decent when healthy, but slow and plodding, no Makar or Hutson or Hughes or Werenski or Dahlin. Goaltending that is among the league's best when healthy, which is to say rarely.

If the stars align, perhaps they’re good enough to get into the playoffs. Maybe as a wild card, maybe not.

But can they contend? And if the answer is no, what then?

Matthews is coming off a 37-goal, 72-point pace over an 82-game season. His value has never been lower. But without some guarantee he'll re-sign, you can't let him play out the next two years knowing he might walk for nothing, like Marner.

That’s the risk.

Or Chayka and Sundin could help him make the call now. Ask for ten teams he'd accept. Start working the phones.

General managers love to talk about windows. Competing while you still can. Believing in the group you have.

And then one day you wake up and the window has closed. You just stood there and watched it happen.

The Decision Needs to Be Made Sooner Than Later

Should he decide he needs a change of scenery, whether that is now or a year and a half from now, Matthews has most of the control. He can dictate where he wants to go. Teams he'd be willing to go to. Teams that can afford to take on his immense cap hit. Teams that have the assets to make a deal worth Toronto's while.

The return could change the future of the franchise. Prospects. Picks. The kind of haul that can help replenish a system that has been stripped bare. The Leafs have no first-round picks for the next two years, thanks to horrible asset management by previous regimes. The cupboard, as they say, is dry. McKenna or Stenberg will help, but that cupboard still needs restocking.

Should Chayka decide to move Matthews over the next year, you get a head start, but you also lose the face of your franchise, one of the most prolific scorers in the game, one of the best Leafs of all time. You start again, building around McKenna or Stenberg. You add a puck-moving defenceman, hopefully one of the prospects or picks you get back in a deal. You stockpile assets and start over with a vision and a timeline that make sense. Close the book on a chapter that promised everything and delivered nothing.

If you go that route, you take the prospects, the picks, and you start again.

And you hope it's enough.

So Where to Go with Auston Matthews

Two weeks in. One coach fired. And now John Chayka and Mats Sundin face the decision that could haunt them for the next decade.

Both took their roles knowing the criticism would come. It did. Now they have the chance to prove the doubters wrong, and they won't do it by playing it safe. The hard calls that previous regimes couldn't or wouldn't make? They'll need to be made now.

Firing Berube was the first move. It won't be the last.

Matthews is going to let Chayka and Sundin know soon if he plans on being here long term. Maybe not today. Maybe not next week. But it's coming. And when it does, it will define this era before it even really begins.

And it will come down to one decision. Make another run with a superstar who might already have one foot out the door? Hope that somehow this flawed roster finds a way to compete against younger, faster teams like Montreal and Buffalo, who are just starting their reign atop the Atlantic Division?

Or make the trade that waves the white flag on this era but signals hope for the future? The one that says we're not good enough now but we will be in three years when McKenna or Stenberg is hitting stride and the foundation around him is right.

The hardest decisions don't come with a manual. They come with a choice between what's comfortable and what's necessary.

Two paths sit in front of Chayka and Sundin now. Both uncertain.

One path keeps Matthews for another season or two, maybe longer, hoping loyalty and star power overcome structural flaws and that playoff demons finally disappear.

The other path is harder. Trade the face of the franchise, one who already has a spot reserved on Legends Row even if he never scores another goal in Toronto. Build around McKenna and a future that won't arrive for at least a few years. Accept that this roster isn't championship-calibre now but might be later, when the foundation is right and the timeline makes sense

Neither road guarantees anything. But one of them is necessary.

And Chayka and Sundin will have to choose. Soon.

The franchise will live with that choice for the next decade.

Marty Henwood has spent over two decades in sport marketing, communications and media, including senior roles with Hockey.com, PGA TOUR Canada and Skate Canada.